The WNBA playoffs have begun, and they come with a new structure. The era of one-and-done first rounds, which left great teams vulnerable to a good or bad night, is over, and in its place are Round 1 three-game series, Round 2 five-game series, and the WNBA Finals.
After the Chicago Sky held the top spot during a midseason stretch, the Las Vegas Aces enter as the favorite. Can anyone outside of those teams pull off a surprise? How about Sue Bird’s final run against the Seattle Storm? or the Elena Delle Donne’s Washington Mystics? Is this the Connecticut Sun’s year to succeed at last?
Matt Moore, a senior writer for the NBA, and Jim Turvey, a WNBA and NBA analyst, share their picks for the best WNBA wagers, including title futures, first-round series props, and Game 1 plays.
PRE-PLAYOFFS, BEST WNBA TITLE BET
Aces +175 (Moore; BetFred) (2u)
Look around; at some of the larger stores, this is as short as +135.
Bet via Ladbrokes | Midasbet | OKBET WNBA Basketball Betting Lines
The best team with the best record is the No. 1 overall seed, which is boring. However, the gap between the great and the good is wider because there are fewer teams in the W.
I favor the Aces over the Sky based on power rating. That is very significant when taking the season into account. Vegas was the overwhelming favorite for the majority of the season before going through a midseason slump and taking a complete dive for a month.
The Sky flourished during that time (and I frequently bet Chicago at +250 or better, logged in the Action app). The Aces picked up again and finished strong, including the final game against the Storm. At that point, the Sky started to lose a little bit of its momentum.
Given that Vegas must play the victor of the Mystics-Storm gauntlet of death, the Aces’ path is more difficult than Chicago’s. However, Chicago will first play a tough Sun team before facing a Liberty team with higher variance due to its 3-point shooting rate.
But ultimately, I think the Aces match up so well that I would still believe that the Sky (+250 or better) are the best wager. Based on halfcourt and transition matchup data, I have the Aces favored by a lot more (Aces -5.2 at home) versus the Sky than even their power rating projects (the Aces attempt about six more 3-pointers per 100 possessions than Chicago).
The Aces’ issues over the previous few years were Liz Cambage and Bill Laimbeer’s anti-three, outdated coaching style. They’re both gone. Vegas has been overhyped for so long that the time has come for them to finally earn their flowers and raise the banner.
Storm +500 or better is a longshot wager (0.25u).
It will be a brutal series if the Storm defeats the Mystics, which is possible, so I have them as big underdogs versus the Aces. All of this, however, is based on their regular-season profile. And the Storm might be able to outperform that profile in the postseason given their championship experience and tenacity.
The Storm can advance if they simply lean more heavily on Breanna Stewart, Jewell Loyd, and Tina Charles than they did during the regular season, when they finished seventh overall according to Synergy Sports.
In addition, the Storm rank second in 3-pointers made allowed per possession and are third in 3-point rate per 100 possessions to keep up with the Aces (who also allow the most 3-pointers made per 100 possessions).
The Storm would then once again be underdogs against the Sky, the defending champion, but the difference in my matchup statistics (Sky -3.5 in the away games at Seattle) is close enough to justify the value of 5-1.
But aside from the statistics and matchups, is there a particular player I want to stake my financial future on? This is Breanna Stewart.
Seattle +600 (FanDuel; would also play at +500), according to Jim Turvey
Before discussing the Storm, let me make a quick side note: If I had to predict one team to win the WNBA championship outright in 2022, it would be the Chicago Sky.
I don’t have as much faith in the Aces as my colleague Matt does. Since Dearica Hamby won’t be playing in the postseason to begin with, my concerns about their depth have grown.
This team relies on its starting five for about 80% of its points, and now that Kiah Stokes has been promoted from the bench to the starting lineup, they only have one player off the bench who averages more than four points per game.
They also rely heavily on the three, which they are excellent at, but that kind of deviation from a favorite scares me in the postseason when easy looks start to dry up a bit and even the best teams can experience lengthy cold streaks.
I concur with Matt that the Aces and Sky are a great matchup, but I worry that they might not advance to the envisioned championship game. That’s largely thanks to my best title wager in this case: The Seattle Storm.
The Storm’s fourth-place finish in the standings means that winning a championship will be difficult. But as I’ll discuss later, I don’t think their path will be as difficult as these odds suggest. I firmly believe that the Storm will easily defeat the Mystics in their first-round matchup (again, see below), which will almost certainly place them in a second-round matchup with the Aces.
As Matt noted, the outcome of this series may depend on 3-pointers. The Aces struggle to defend threes (in the bottom three in both threes allowed and 3-point percentage allowed), while the Storm finished the regular season with the best 3-point percentage defense in the entire league. This is to emphasize the point he made above. Both teams are elite at taking and making threes (the only two teams in the top third of the league in both threes attempted per game and 3-point percentage).
Additionally, Seattle’s defense excels at preventing opponents from converting free throws and limiting fastbreak points (fewest allowed in the victory) (fewest opponent FT per game). These are the two areas where Las Vegas relies on offense (ranking third in both fastbreak points and free throws attempted per game in the regular season).
The matchup against the Sky (or Sun, who should definitely not be overlooked) isn’t quite as ideal if the Storm defeat the Aces, but at that point, you can either look to double down if the Storm performs as well through their first two series as I anticipate they will.
It’s also Sue Bird’s final season, so just a friendly reminder to check out Breanna Stewart’s Wikipedia page’s Career Highlights and Awards section to see what a GOAT in the making actually looks like. It’s absurd to type, but when she’s healthy, she’s more likely to take home the championship of whichever league she plays in.
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