WNBA Playoffs Odds & Betting Predictions: Our Expert’s Top First-Round and Title Bets for the Postseason

The WNBA playoffs have arrived, bringing a new format with them. The days of one-and-done first rounds, which left great teams at the mercy of a good or bad night, are long gone, and in their place are three-game series in Round 1 and five-game series in Round 2 and the WNBA Finals.

Following a midseason run by the Chicago Sky, the Las Vegas Aces enter as the favorite. Can anyone outside of those teams make a surprise run? What about the Seattle Storm in Sue Bird’s final season? Or the Washington Mystics in support of Elena Delle Donne? Is this finally the Connecticut Sun’s year to succeed?

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NBA Senior Writer Matt Moore and WNBA and NBA analyst Jim Turvey discuss their favorite WNBA bets, including title futures, first-round series props, and Game 1 plays.

PRE-PLAYOFFS WNBA TITLE BET
Aces +175 (BetFred) Moore (2u)
Look around; this can be as short as +135 at some of the larger stores.

So the best team with the best record, the No. 1 overall seed, is boring. However, with fewer teams in the W, the gap between the great and the good is wider.

In terms of power, I favor the Aces over the Sky. That is extremely important in the context of the season. For much of the season, Vegas was the overwhelming favorite, but then it went into a midseason slump and completely collapsed for a month.

During that time, the Sky thrived (and I frequently bet Chicago at +250 or better, which I tracked in the Action app). The Sky then began to lose steam, and the Aces took over, finishing strong, including the final game against the Storm.

Given that Vegas must play the winner of the Mystics-Storm gauntlet of doom, the Aces’ path is more difficult than Chicago’s. However, Chicago will face a Liberty team with higher variance due to its 3-point rate, followed by a tough Sun team.

However, if it weren’t for the fact that I believe the Aces match up so well, I’d still think the Sky (+250 or better) were the best bet. The Aces attempt about six more three-pointers per 100 possessions than the Bulls, and based on halfcourt and transition matchup data, I have the Aces favored by much more (Aces -5.2 at home) than even their power rating projects.

The Aces’ problems in recent years have been Bill Laimbeer’s anti-three coaching and Liz Cambage. Both have vanished. The time has come for Vegas, which has been overhyped for far too long, to finally earn their flowers and raise the banner.

Storm +500 or better is a longshot bet (0.25u).

If the Storm beat the Mystics, which they may not, that will be a brutal series, and I have them as significant underdogs to the Aces. However, all of this is based on their regular-season record. And, given their championship experience and grit, the Storm may be able to outperform that profile in the postseason.

The Storm can make a run if they look like a better half-court offensive team than they did in the regular season (seventh overall according to Synergy Sports) by relying more on Breanna Stewart, Jewell Loyd, and Tina Charles.

Furthermore, the Storm are third in 3-point rate per 100 possessions, trailing only the Aces (who allow the most 3-point attempts per 100 possessions) and second in 3-point attempts allowed per possession.

The Storm would then be underdogs to the defending champion Sky, but the gap is close enough in my matchup numbers (Sky -3.5 in road games at Seattle) to make 5-1 a viable option.

But, beyond the numbers and matchups, is there one player I want to bet on? It’s Breanna Stewart calling.

Seattle +600 (FanDuel; would also play at +500) Jim Turvey
Before we get to the Storm, a quick aside: If I had to pick a team to win the WNBA championship in 2022, it would be the Chicago Sky.

Unlike my colleague Matt, I’m not a big fan of the Aces. I have my doubts about their depth, which is heightened by the absence of Dearica Hamby to begin the postseason.

This is a team that gets roughly 80% of its points from its starting five, and now that Kiah Stokes has been promoted from the bench to the starting lineup, they only have one player averaging more than four points per game off the bench.

They also rely heavily on the three, which they excel at, but in the postseason, when easy looks dry up a bit and even the best teams can go on extended cold streaks, that kind of variance from a favorite worries me.

I agree with Matt that the Aces match up well against the Sky, but I’m afraid they won’t make it to the championship game. This is largely due to my best title bet here, the Seattle Storm.

The Storm finished the season as the fourth seed and will face a difficult road to a title as a result. However, as I’ll discuss later, I don’t believe their path will be as difficult as these odds suggest. I am a firm believer that the Storm will breeze through their first-round matchup with the Mystics (again, see below), setting up a meeting with the Aces in the second round.